‘Coalition of the Willing’ designs security architecture for Ukraine
- geoffypjohnston
- 13 hours ago
- 15 min read
Geoffrey P. Johnston
Just days after the most recent meeting of the ‘Coalition of the Willing’ in Paris, Russia launched a massive attack on Ukrainian civilian population centres and energy infrastructure, demonstrating that the Kremlin is committed to continuing its terror campaign and war of aggression against Ukraine.
On Jan. 6, French President Emmanuel Macron hosted a gathering of the ‘Coalition of the Willing’ countries in support of Ukraine. “Together, we are building a robust security architecture for Ukraine,” reads the translation of one of Macron’s social media posts. In another post, he described the conference as “a historic day for Ukraine and Europe.”
“We just held a productive and important meeting of the Coalition of the Willing in Paris to advance our support for Ukraine. We stand ready to commit to a system of politically and legally binding guarantees that will be activated once a ceasefire enters into force,” António Costa, President of the European Council, posted after the conference had concluded.
According to Costa, the European Union “will contribute to the efforts to ensure the security guarantees that Ukraine needs for any agreement for a long-lasting peace.” For example, that means advancing Ukraine’s accession to full membership in the European Union in the community; underwrite “Ukraine’s financial needs for the next two years with a €90 billion loan; and assisting Ukraine with EU civilian and military missions on the ground.
“Ukraine must be in the strongest possible position—before, during, and after any ceasefire,” Costa concluded.
“Ahead of today’s meeting of the leaders of the Coalition of the Willing, @SecGenNATO Rutte and I discussed the Alliance’s efforts to secure peace in Ukraine and the need for robust security guarantees,” Prime Minister Mark Carney said in a social media post of his consultation with NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte. “To increase our capabilities and that of our Allies, Canada is quadrupling our defence spending over the next decade – part of our mission to rearm and reinvest in the @CanadianForces,”Carney added.
“Thank you to President @EmmanuelMacron for bringing together the Coalition of the Willing in Paris today,” Carney said in a separate post. “Canada and France are strong Allies and partners — and we’re working relentlessly to secure a just and lasting peace for Ukraine.”
“Today in Paris, Europe, the US, Canada and others spoke with one voice on security guarantees and the future of Ukraine,” Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk posted after the meeting “But I’m still sceptical about Russia’s intentions. What we need is strong pressure on them, with all economic and political measures we have at hand.”
“Canada stands with Ukraine. Their cause — freedom, democracy, and sovereignty — is our cause,” Carney posted on Jan. 7. “We’ll keep working with our Allies to secure peace for the Ukrainian people, and we’ll be there to help them rebuild, recover, and create the foundations for lasting prosperity.”
“Good progress made today in Paris, when we in the Coalition of the Willing, Ukraine and the United States met to discuss peace in Ukraine,” Swedish Prime Minister Ulf Kristersson posted after the meeting. “When a peace agreement is reached in Ukraine, Sweden stands ready to contribute to the security guarantees for Ukraine and the rest of Europe.”
Kristersson stated that Sweden is prepared provide concrete assistance, including: “Gripen fighter jets for air surveillance over Ukraine; maritime resources for clearing mines in the Black Sea;” and “continuing our training of Ukrainian military officers.”
“Ukraine will need extensive security guarantees after the war to deter Russia from renewed aggression,” Kaja Kallas, the European Union High Representative for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy, said in a Jan. 6 statement posted on social media.
“The Coalition of the Willing exists to turn plans into real protection. Leaders met in Paris today to lock in those security guarantees. A stronger Ukrainian military, backed by a multinational force and U.S. support,” Kallas said. “Our priority is ending the war, but right now, Russia flatly rejects peace.”
Paris Declaration
“The Coalition of the Willing is meeting in Paris today,” Ursula von der Leyen, President of the EU Commission, posted on Jan. 6. “Our goal is clear: Provide robust security guarantees for Ukraine. With strong Ukrainian armed forces that can deter future attacks, a multinational force for deterrence and binding commitments to support Ukraine in the case of a future attack by Russia. Ukraine‘s accession to the EU will be both a key security guarantee in its own right and a central pillar of our transformative prosperity offer.”
“We all stressed our commitment to a just and lasting peace in Ukraine in line with the United Nations Charter principles, and welcomed the progress achieved, including in the discussions between the Americans, the Ukrainians, European and other partners,” reads the Paris Declaration released on Jan. 6. “In particular, the Coalition was clear that Ukraine’s ability to defend itself is critically important for ensuring the future of Ukraine’s and Euro-Atlantic collective security.”
The declaration reaffirmed that “ensuring the sovereignty and lasting security of Ukraine shall be an integral part of a peace agreement, and that any settlement will have to be backed up by robust security guarantees for Ukraine.”
The ‘Coalition of the Willing’ stands ready “to commit to a system of politically and legally binding guarantees that will be activated once a ceasefire enters into force, in addition to bilateral security agreements and in accordance with our respective legal and constitutional arrangements,” the declaration reads.
According to the Paris Declaration, those guarantees include: participation in an American-led ceasefire monitoring and verification mechanism; long term security/military assistance to Ukraine; the establishment of a multinational force for Ukraine; binding commitments to support Ukrainians in the case of a future armed attack by Russia; and long-term defence cooperation with Ukraine, such as training, defence industrial joint production, and intelligence cooperation.
“We have further decided to establish a US/Ukraine/Coalition coordination cell at the Coalition Operational Headquarters in Paris,” reads the conclusion of the Paris Declaration.
“France and the United Kingdom have confirmed their intention to deploy their soldiers on Ukrainian soil after an eventual ceasefire as part of a broader package of security guarantees for Kyiv to avoid a repeat of Russia's full-scale invasion in the future,” Euronews reported in a Jan. 6 post.
Zelenskyy address at Paris
At Paris, President Volodymyr Zelenskyy delivered prepared remarks at a joint press conference with French President Emmanuel Macron, British Prime Minister Keir Starmer, German Chancellor Friedrich Merz, and Trump envoys Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner.
“This was one of the most representative meetings of the Coalition of the Willing – twenty-seven heads of state, the European Union, NATO, and representatives of Türkiye, Japan, Australia, and New Zealand,”Zelenskyy said at the outset of his address. “It was truly a global meeting, with an exceptionally high level of discussion.”
Zelenskyy also heralded progress made by the Coalition of the Willing. “This is not just rhetoric – there is concrete progress: a joint declaration by all Coalition countries, and a trilateral declaration by France, the United Kingdom, and Ukraine,” the Ukrainian president said. “These documents exist, and they signal how seriously both Europe and the entire Coalition of the Willing are ready to work toward real security.”
When peace finally comes to Ukraine, said Zelenskyy, “we will have full readiness to deploy Coalition forces” in Ukraine. “It has been determined which countries are ready to take the lead in specific elements of security guarantees – on land, in the air, at sea, and in reconstruction. It has been determined what forces are needed, how they will be managed, and at which levels command will operate.”
However, much work still has to be done to flesh out post-war security guarantees for Ukraine. “We must also establish how monitoring will function,” Zelenskyy noted. “It must be absolutely clear how the appropriate strength and size of the Ukrainian army will be sustained and financed.” And he revealed that British, French, and Ukrainian military officials in Paris worked on details regarding “deployment, numbers, specific types of weapons, and the components of the Armed Forces required and able to operate effectively.”
As for the Americans, Zelenskyy said that his team had “substantive discussion” with them “on monitoring to ensure there are no violations of peace.” The Ukrainians and Americans also discussed deterrence. “We believe that we now have documents ready on security guarantees, bilateral, between Ukraine and the United States, as well as trilateral documents,” the president said.
However, the Americans have yet to sign any security agreement. “We expect that signing could take place in the near future, and we are already working through these formats,” Zelenskyy said. “The U.S. backstop is extremely important for us. We understand the potential timing of all these processes, and we all agree that these security guarantees must be legally binding, including approval by the U.S. Congress.”
During his Paris address, Zelenskyy acknowledged that there are still outstanding issues to be worked out regarding the 20-point peace plan, “the most significant being territorial issues.” If the issues cannot be resolved by officials, he said the outstanding points could be “escalated to leaders.”
“But the key point is that the architecture of post-war security is practically already in place,” Zelenskyy asserted. “And it is now up to our partners to push for Russia to reach the point of ending the war.”
“Everyone understands that the aggressor must stop for peace to work,” Zelenskyy said of the imperative of forcing Russia to accept a peace agreement. “And all instruments are working for this: from our deep strikes, sanctions, and diplomacy, which is so important.”
Air defences for Ukraine was another issue covered during the meeting of the Coalition of the Willing. “Ukraine needs air defence missiles, steady supplies, because Russian strikes, unfortunately, continue despite diplomacy,” Zelenskyy explained. “The strikes do not stop. Russia is not yet fully committed to diplomacy, and it is not committed only because it counts on strikes against our energy facilities, our infrastructure, peaceful cities and villages.”
At the conclusion of his remarks, Zelenskky stressed the link between strength and peace. “The stronger our defense, the stronger our diplomacy will ultimately be,” he declared. “We are grateful to all who are ready to provide rapid assistance.
Oreshnik missile strike
On the night of Jan. 8 and early morning hours of Jan. 9, Russia launched yet another bombardment of Ukraine’s civilian population.
“Twenty residential buildings alone were damaged,” President Zelenskyy said in a Jan. 9 post of the Russian attack on Kyiv and the surrounding region. “Unfortunately, as of now, it is known that four people have been killed in the capital alone.”
Zelenskyy revealed that the Russians executed a so-called tap double attack in Kyiv. “There was also a second strike on one of the residential buildings – precisely at the moment when first responders were providing assistance after the first strike.”
According to a Jan. 9 story posted online by UN News, the official news organization of the United Nations, “the victims included a medic who was saving others as part of an emergency services team.”
“Overall, last night there were 242 drones,” Zelenskyy said of the overnight onslaught. “There were also 13 ballistic missiles targeting energy facilities and civilian infrastructure, one Oreshnik medium-range ballistic missile, as well as 22 cruise missiles.”
“In addition to our civilian infrastructure and energy facilities, a building of the Embassy of Qatar was damaged last night by a Russian drone – Qatar, a state that does so much to mediate with Russia in order to secure the release of prisoners of war and civilians held in Russian prison,” Zelenskyy reported.
“Attacks last night on #Kyiv & across #Ukraine reportedly injured 3 children & left millions without heating, water & power,” UNICEF Ukraine posted on Jan. 9. “Sub-zero temperatures are another risk to children’s physical & mental health.”
“The Secretary-General strongly condemns the ongoing targeted missile and drone attacks by the Russian Federation on Ukraine's critical civilian infrastructure,” reads a Jan. 9 statement issued on behalf of United Nations Secretary-General António Guterres. “These attacks have resulted in significant civilian casualties and deprived millions of Ukrainians of essential services, including electricity, heating and water at a time of acute humanitarian need.”
In addition, the secretary-general’s statement noted that “attacks against civilians and civilian infrastructure violate international humanitarian law. No matter where they occur, they are unacceptable, unjustifiable, and must stop immediately.”
The Ukrainian president called for “a clear reaction from the world,” especially from the United States.
“Today’s strike also serves as a very loud reminder to all our partners that supporting Ukraine’s air defence is a permanent priority,” Zelenskyy added. “Not a single day can be lost in deliveries, in production, or in agreements. Today, we will inform our partners at all levels about what has happened and what response measures we need. Thank you to everyone who stands with Ukraine!”
“Last night, Russia launched a barrage of attacks against Ukraine, including an ‘Oreshnik’ ballistic missile fired at Lviv, killing and injuring dozens,” the Ministry of Defence of the United Kingdom stated in a Jan. 9 social media post. “These attacks are yet another attempt by Putin to terrorise the people of Ukraine and threaten the security of Europe.”
According to a Jan. 9 story posted on the BBC News website, “the Oreshnik is an intermediate-range, hypersonic ballistic missile, meaning it can potentially reach up to 5,500km (3,417 miles).” The BBC also reported that the Oreshnik “is thought to have a warhead that deliberately fragments during its final descent into several, independently targeted inert projectiles, causing distinctive repeated explosions moments apart.”
“That Russia has had to resort to such missiles shows the success Ukraine is having in degrading Putin’s war machine – his intimidation tactics are failing,” the United Kingdom’s defence ministry posted. “Time and again, Russia demonstrates that it is not serious about peace, showing contempt for Ukraine’s efforts and those of the United States to secure a just and lasting resolution.”
In addition, the Ministry of Defence revealed that United Kingdom Secretary of State for Defence John Healy met with key Ukrainian government officials, including President Volodymyr Zelenskyy, “to reaffirm the UK’s resolute support for Ukraine and our commitment to achieving a peace deal that is fair, lasting, and upholds Ukraine’s sovereignty.”
“Russia's barrage of attacks on Ukraine overnight, including firing an Oreshnik ballistic missile at Lviv, are another attempt by Putin to terrorise Ukraine and threaten Europe's security,” Healy stated in a Jan. 9 social media post. My visit to Kyiv today underlines the UK's resolute support for a just and lasting peace.”
“During my meeting with UK Secretary of State for Defence @JohnHealey_MP, I briefed him on Russia’s overnight strike on our energy infrastructure and people,” Zelenskyy stated on social media post that same day.
“Moscow is trying to use cold weather as a tool of terror, which is why work on additional air defence capabilities for Ukraine is now an urgent priority,” Zelenskyy continued. “We know which partners have the relevant missiles and equipment, and I am sincerely grateful to the United Kingdom for its readiness to help.”
In addition, Zelenskyy noted that he and Healy also discussed “how a British contingent could be deployed to operate alongside French forces if diplomacy works to end the war. It is crucial that the framework for ending the war includes a clear response from the allies should Russian aggression be repeated.” And the Ukrainian leader stressed that it’s “crucial that the framework for ending the war includes a clear response from the allies should Russian aggression be repeated.”
In a separate Jan. 9 post, Zelenskyy returned to the issue of deliberate Russian attacks on civilian energy infrastructure. “The Russians are exploiting the cold snap – trying to hit as many of our energy facilities as possible,” he posted. “So much for their respect for America and all diplomacy. The main Russian tactic is to try to completely shut cities down.”
Zelenskyy also emphasized that the Oreshnik missile attackon Lviv was Russia’s way of sending a threatening message to Europe. “Once again, it was pointedly close to the borders of the European Union. In terms of using medium-range ballistic missiles, this poses the same challenge for all: Warsaw, Bucharest, Budapest, and for many other capitals as well,” the president said.
“Everyone needs to see this in the same way and with the same seriousness: if the Russians aren’t even bothering to come up with a plausible excuse for using such weapons, then no personal connections and no rhetoric will protect anyone from this,” Zelenskyy said, calling for greater cooperation between Ukraine and the rest of Europe.
“What is needed is a system of joint action, a system of collective defence – one that truly works. Does such a system exist now? That’s an open question, because across Europe there is the same doubt – whether their capital would be defended if Putin suddenly lost it.”
Freezing in the dark of winter
“Russia’s campaign of energy terror leaves Ukrainian cities without electricity, yet it's not an obstacle to clearly see: Russia is the only party seeking to prolong this war, thus, it must be held accountable,” the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of Ukraine stated in a Jan. 9 social media post.
“There is a full blackout in Kyiv, Dnipro, Zaporizhzhia, and other cities in Ukraine,” Moshe Azman, Chief Rabbi Of Ukraine, said in a Jan. 9 post. “The civilian population of Ukraine, including children, the elderly, and pregnant women, are now not only without electricity, but also without heating and even running water in their apartments and homes!”
Although Ukrainians are “resilient and strong,” Azman appealed for “as much help as possible from its allies,” appealing to Europe, the United States and “all people of good will in the world! Only then will evil be defeated.”
“Half of Kyiv’s residential buildings are without heat and running water. It’s -8°C now, with -14°C forecast for tomorrow and the coming week,” Kira Rudik, a Ukrainian Member of Parliament and Leader of the Golos Party. “Last night’s attack was another devastating act of terrorism we are forced to live through.”
“Every time somebody talks about future peace - I wonder silently how many people would survive to see it,” Rudik said in a separate Jan. 9 post. “If russia had been pressured into the ceasefire, Ukrainian people would not have to suffer today.”
International reaction
International reaction to the Russians’ use of the Oreshnik missile against Ukraine was met with swift, unequivocal international condemnation.
“Putin doesn’t want peace, Russia’s reply to diplomacy is more missiles and destruction. This deadly pattern of recurring major Russian strikes will repeat itself until we help Ukraine break it,” the EU’s Kaja Kallas posted on Jan. 9.
“Russia’s reported use of an Oreshnik missile is a clear escalation against Ukraine and meant as a warning to Europe and to the U.S.,” Kallas continued. And the top EU diplomat said that European Union Member States “must dig deeper into their air-defence stocks and deliver now. We must also further raise the cost of this war for Moscow, including through tougher sanctions.”
“Canada condemns Russia’s launch of an Oreshnik missile — a clear and dangerous escalation that targeted Ukrainian energy infrastructure and the homes of innocent Ukrainians,” Prime Minister Mark Carney stated in a Jan. 9 social media post in response to the attack.
“We call on Russia to immediately cease its strikes and end this illegal war of aggression,” the prime minister declared. “Canada will keep working with international partners to put an end to this devastation and secure a just and lasting peace for Ukraine.”
Edgars Rinkēvičs, President of the Republic of Latvia, offered a direct, edgy response to the Russian attack. “US, Ukraine and Europe want peace and work tirelessly to prepare a deal, Russia responds with Oreshnik. Quite telling about Russia’s readiness to end the war. None,” Rinkēvičs said in a Jan. 9 social media post.
“In the meantime, everyone who lives in Ukraine now is dispelling the darkness around them with the little light that each of them has,,” the Latvian leader said of the resilience of ordinary Ukrainians.
“Latvia will request an extraordinary meeting of the @UN UN Security Council in response to Russia’s barbaric attack against Ukraine, including using an intermediate range ballistic missile close to the EU and NATO border,” Baiba Braže, Minister of Foreign Affairs of Latvia, stated on social media.
“We firmly condemn Russia’s launch of an Oreshnik missile against Ukraine—hitting energy infrastructure and civilian homes,” Maia Sandu, President of the Republic of Moldova, posted on Jan. 9. “This act of terror aims to intimidate Ukraine and its partners. This war is moving closer to Europe and is a danger to us all. We stand united with Ukraine.”
“Russian air strikes have left half of Kyiv’s apartment buildings without heating,” Elina Valtonen, Minister for Foreign Affairs of Finland, acknowledged in a Jan. 9 social media post.
“In Finland, like in other places with harsh winters, we know what serious cold can mean. It can be a question of life or death,” Valtonen said of the plight of Ukrainian civilians. “These strikes are a reminder of Russia’s complete disregard of human lives. Targeting civilians is and remains a war crime.”
Similarly, the prime minister of Estonia highlighted the horrors inflicted upon the civilian population by the Russian strikes. “Russia’s answer to Ukraine’s and its partners’ efforts for peace is ballistic missiles, damage, civilians killed and wounded. Homes without heat, electricity, or water in the middle of winter. This is not a step toward negotiation. This is terror. Russia deliberately prolongs the war,” Prime Minister Kristen Michal said in a Jan. 9 post.
“Our response must be clear: pressure, sanctions, accountability. Russia does not respond to goodwill. It responds only to force,” Michal added.
According to Norwegian Foreign Affairs Minister Espen Barth Eide, “Russia's use of the Oreshnik missile against civilian infrastructure is yet another escalation from Russia’s side.” And the foreign minister declared: “We will not be bullied. Norway’s support to Ukraine will continue unabated.”
“As Ukraine, Europe and the United States work for peace, Russia continues its war."
On Jan. 12, the UN Security Council will convene an emergency session to address the Russian strikes on Ukraine.
Conclusion
Given that the United States no longer provides security assistance or financial aid to Ukraine, it is up to the European Union and Canada to supply Ukrainians with the weapons, munitions, and other forms of aid that they require to defeat the Russians in 2026.
In addition, in light of U.S. President Donald Trump’s threats to use military force to annex Greenland and thereby breakup NATO, the ‘Coalition of the Willing’ must be prepared for the Trump administration to renege on any security guarantee for Ukraine that it agrees to in the coming weeks or months.